Do higher-confidence signals win more often? The data says yes
Every SignalsTrades signal carries a confidence score produced by its 13-rule engine. A fair question from any trader is whether that number actually predicts anything. The period from 15 September to 16 October 2026 gives a direct answer, because every closed signal can be sorted by the confidence it was published with.
Win rate by confidence band
Sorting the 866 closed signals into four bands shows a clear pattern. The hit rate rises in step with the confidence score.
- 85 and above: 41 percent win rate, from 295 signals.
- 75 to 84: 34 percent win rate, from 302 signals.
- 65 to 74: 32 percent win rate, from 220 signals.
- Below 65: 25 percent win rate, from 49 signals.
From the bottom band to the top, the win rate climbs from 25 percent to 41 percent. The confidence score is not decoration. Higher numbers won more often.
How to use the score
The data suggests treating the score as a filter rather than a guarantee. Signals above 75 carried a meaningfully higher hit rate than those below 65. Pairing a high score with a sound stop-loss and position size is the intended way to use it.
The 13 rules behind the number
The score reflects how many of 13 independent checks agree on direction: RSI, the Fear and Greed Index, price momentum over 5 and 20 days, moving-average alignment, trading-session open, round-level proximity, the broad US Dollar trend, historical support and resistance, win streak, news sentiment, economic-calendar events, gold safe-haven correlation and triangle breakout. When more rules agree the confidence is higher, and the record shows those calls performed better.