Forex signal confidence score explained

The confidence score on a forex signal is a percentage that represents how strongly multiple independent indicators agree on the direction. A confidence of 85% means many rules fired in the same direction. A confidence of 60% means only a few rules aligned.

How SignalsTrades calculates confidence

Base confidence starts at 55%. Each rule that fires in the signal direction adds 5% to confidence, up to a maximum of 95%. A signal with 8 rules aligned reaches 95% (55% + 8 × 5%). A signal with 1 rule aligned shows 60%.

Rules firedConfidenceInterpretation
160%Weak alignment, consider waiting
370%Moderate, usable with tight SL
580%Strong, most rules agree
8+95%Maximum, rare, high-quality setup

What confidence does not mean

Confidence is not a win probability. A 95% confidence signal does not win 95% of the time. It means 95% of the rules agree on direction, which statistically increases the probability compared to a 60% confidence signal, but markets can still move against the direction.

Should I only trade high-confidence signals?
Using a minimum threshold (e.g. only trade signals above 75%) filters out low-alignment setups. Backtesting across a signal history would tell you which confidence threshold works best for each pair.
What is the average confidence on SignalsTrades signals?
Most signals fall in the 65-80% range. Signals above 85% are less common but represent the strongest algorithmic alignment across the 12-rule system.
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