Does a 36% win rate lose money? What 866 closed signals show

Most signal services advertise win rates above 90 percent. SignalsTrades does not, because that is not what honest trading looks like. Across 866 signals that reached a result between 15 September and 16 October 2026, 308 won and 558 lost. That is a win rate of about 36 percent. Over the same period the signals finished ahead by more than 2,200 pips. Here is how both of those facts are true at once.

Expectancy, not win rate

The average winning signal gained about 100 pips. The average losing signal cost about 51 pips. Winners were therefore nearly twice the size of losers, a ratio close to 1.95 to 1. With that ratio the break-even win rate is about 34 percent. A 36 percent win rate sits just above that line, which is why the net result was positive rather than negative.

Why a 90 percent claim is a warning sign

A very high win rate almost always hides a dangerous structure: a tiny take-profit and a very large stop-loss. Such a system wins often in small amounts and then gives it all back in one or two large losses. A lower win rate paired with larger winners is the more durable shape, and it is the one the SignalsTrades data shows.

What it means for a follower

Expect to lose more individual trades than you win. The edge comes from letting winners run to their take-profit and cutting losers at the stop. Consistent position sizing matters more than any single call. A follower who closes winners early and lets losers run will invert the math and lose money on the same signals.